Thu, Apr 22, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 312 | 110 | 111 | 533 |
| WPG | 214 | 19 | 014 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 1:18TORWayne SimmondsAssists: John Tavares, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 3:19WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Andrew Copp, Mason Appleton · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 10:26WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Mason Appleton · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- P1 11:59TORJason SpezzaAssists: Joe Thornton, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 12:58TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 17:56WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:54TORMitch MarnerENAssists: Nick Foligno, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:59TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:16WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:29TORJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Marner – Matthews11:43
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Brooks7:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Engvall10:10
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander11:53
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly17:32
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Dermott – Sandin10:38
xG 0.13–0.46 (23%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl19:02
xG 0.28–0.64 (30%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Dubois12:10
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton4:07
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Perreault – Copp – Appleton4:35
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault3:08
xG 0.04–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk16:22
xG 1.12–0.52 (68%)attempts 22–9goals 3–2
- Benn – DeMelo10:05
xG 0.10–0.27 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey19:58
xG 0.38–0.58 (39%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).