Wed, Apr 21, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 112 | 013 | 233 |
| VGK | 119 | 210 | 211 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joel Kellman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 6:51VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 11:07SJSTomas HertlAssists: Patrick Marleau, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 12:52VGKMark StonePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:10VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 13:18VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Mattias Janmark · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:04VGKMattias JanmarkENAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:26VGKMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:26SJSBrent Burns: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:07VGKShea Theodore: Interference2 min
- P1 19:31SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:38SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:06SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:50VGKAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:16VGKWilliam Carrier: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Leonard – Kellman5:15
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hertl – Balcers10:06
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Labanc – Meier – Gambrell10:13
xG 0.44–0.87 (34%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
- Couture – Kane – Gregor10:43
xG 0.11–0.93 (10%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro8:52
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Burns – Ferraro6:20
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:19
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Tuch – Sikura8:05
xG 0.79–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Janmark10:16
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:53
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud10:21
xG 0.81–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:29
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 2–2
- Theodore – Coghlan2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).