Thu, Apr 22, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 112 | 312 | 538 |
| BUF | 07 | 113 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:36BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:27BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Anders Bjork, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:50BOSMatt GrzelcykGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 4:55BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 6:01BOSNick RitchieAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 18:02BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:13BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:25BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:18BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:18BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:49BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P2 5:48BOSDavid Pastrnak: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:56BOSSteven Kampfer: Interference2 min
- P2 13:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:26BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Smith – Hall9:53
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:19
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 3–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk8:27
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Lazar9:46
xG 0.04–0.54 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Clifton11:59
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy11:22
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Reilly2:03
xG 0.08–0.34 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAsplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt7:44
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson7:25
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen11:07
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Rieder – Caggiula8:21
xG 0.15–0.43 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Bryson13:31
xG 0.86–0.31 (73%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson11:47
xG 0.53–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin15:33
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 16–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).