Thu, Apr 22, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 1, New York Islanders 0 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 014 | 09 | 01 | 2 | 128 |
| NYI | 015 | 07 | 03 | 01 | 1 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. NYI Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 5. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 6. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:16NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:29NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:19NYINoah Dobson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:00WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Raffl – Sheary10:18
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha10:33
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:40
xG 0.15–0.42 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:52
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov16:42
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk13:32
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen13:04
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Eberle – Barzal10:04
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Pageau – Beauvillier11:21
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Dal Colle10:17
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:23
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock12:54
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Leddy – Dobson3:29
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Mayfield2:16
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).