Thu, Apr 22, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 314 | 16 | 429 |
| FLA | 16 | 09 | 119 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Nikita Gusev · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:14CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 11:09CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Brett Pesce, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 18:08CARSebastian AhoSHGWGAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 12:02FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 19:44CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:31CARNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:17FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:17CARCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:52FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:55CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:22FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P1 15:58CARWarren Foegele: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:39FLARyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:22CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:38CARDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:52FLAPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14CARSteven Lorentz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:30CARJordan Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:06CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:18CARVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Necas8:52
xG 0.54–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Foegele5:32
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie3:03
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Foegele – Lorentz2:16
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin11:10
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Ryan5:05
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Pesce11:41
xG 0.89–0.95 (48%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Gusev – Barkov6:57
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Wennberg – Vatrano2:32
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Vatrano – Lomberg2:45
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett7:01
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling15:42
xG 1.25–0.82 (61%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Montour – Nutivaara8:28
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gudas – Nutivaara2:09
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).