Thu, Apr 22, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 3, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 219 | 115 | 346 |
| DET | 39 | 17 | 37 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:50DETJakub VranaAssists: Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:35DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Marc Staal, Adam Erne · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:49DETRichard PanikAssists: Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 2:07DALRadek FaksaPPAssists: Tanner Kero, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 6:50DETJakub VranaGWGAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Gustav Lindstrom · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 12:46DALJoe PavelskiAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 10:09DETJakub VranaUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 13:29DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Tanner Kero · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 15:48DETJakub VranaAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Filip Zadina · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 18:47DETSam GagnerENAssists: Gustav Lindstrom · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:11DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:38DETVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:41DALAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:25DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 12:06DETTroy Stecher: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:43
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov9:15
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson2:36
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:30
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hanley8:15
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell10:11
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen15:57
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Vrana – Zadina3:44
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 3–0
- Gagner – Panik – Namestnikov2:33
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Gagner – Svechnikov4:30
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:21
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 3–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Lindstrom8:29
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Staal – Stecher9:50
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Cholowski – Stecher2:59
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).