Thu, Apr 22, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 111 | 29 | 429 |
| STL | 17 | 09 | 111 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:28COLBrandon SaadAssists: Tyson Jost · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:45COLAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 11:29COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 13:43STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Tyler Bozak, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:29COLPierre-Edouard BellemareENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:41COLBrandon Saad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:00STLJustin Faulk: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:27STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:07STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:49STLVince Dunn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:50COLAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:04COLCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min
- P3 4:45COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:19STLJaden Schwartz: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:45COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Nichushkin – Jost5:04
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Kadri – Compher5:17
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon9:08
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Bellemare – Kaut3:25
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard4:08
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard7:06
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Makar3:18
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:12
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Schenn – Kyrou6:29
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clifford – Sanford – Barbashev4:12
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn2:14
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug9:43
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko10:44
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Parayko2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).