Fri, Apr 23, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 013 | 322 | 440 |
| BUF | 110 | 216 | 38 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15BOSSteven KampferAssists: Taylor Hall, Tuukka Rask · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:40BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:54BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 14:17BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 1:14BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Dylan Cozens, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 4:30BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–5
- P3 12:06BOSNick RitchieAssists: Steven Kampfer, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 15:25BOSKevan MillerAssists: Steven Kampfer, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 17:12BOSTaylor HallAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 19:18BUFSam ReinhartENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:23BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:55BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:32BUFDylan Cozens: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:32BOSCraig Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 4:21BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Ritchie – DeBrusk7:26
xG 0.78–0.34 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Krejci – Smith – Hall13:30
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Wagner – Blidh – Lazar5:06
xG 0.15–0.13 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lazar – Ritchie – DeBrusk3:08
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Reilly15:09
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Grzelcyk2:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy15:50
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Rieder – Caggiula8:00
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt11:23
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen11:35
xG 0.28–0.71 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson10:45
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin20:02
xG 1.10–0.73 (60%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson15:38
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Borgen – Bryson13:25
xG 0.11–1.40 (7%)attempts 6–25goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).