Mon, Feb 22, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 312 | 110 | 634 |
| SJS | 113 | 111 | 09 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Timo Meier, Rudolfs Balcers · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:49MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Victor Rask, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 8:00MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Carson Soucy · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 3:36MINIan ColeGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:48MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Ryan Hartman, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 11:57SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Evander Kane, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P2 17:25MINJonas BrodinPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 16:57MINVictor RaskENAssists: Carson Soucy, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.68 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:56MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:21MINIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:49MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:55SJSLogan Couture: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:28SJSNikolai Knyzhov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 19:02MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Bjugstad – Sturm7:43
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov8:30
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Parise – Foligno – Hartman11:34
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Fiala – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:04
xG 0.50–1.11 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Cole – Soucy12:57
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 3–1
- Suter – Spurgeon16:00
xG 0.81–1.15 (41%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:55
xG 0.47–1.12 (30%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Balcers11:30
xG 1.01–0.43 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–2
- Marleau – Sorensen – Nieto3:05
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Labanc10:34
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Donato – Gregor4:39
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Knyzhov13:29
xG 1.07–0.13 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Claesson – Meloche10:07
xG 0.54–0.49 (53%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Burns – Ferraro14:27
xG 0.95–1.04 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).