Sat, Apr 24, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 6, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 213 | 27 | 210 | 630 |
| NYI | 111 | 28 | 05 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:55WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 14:28NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 7:37NYIAdam PelechSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 12:21WSHNic DowdAssists: Brenden Dillon, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 14:46WSHDaniel SprongGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 17:12NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.38 xG4–3
- P3 7:35WSHEvgeny KuznetsovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 14:43WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.05 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:03WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22NYIJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:57
xG 0.75–0.58 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha13:40
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Sprong10:56
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Eller – Raffl – Sheary14:38
xG 0.32–1.02 (24%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – van Riemsdyk16:45
xG 1.15–0.29 (80%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Carlson – Orlov19:03
xG 0.75–0.64 (54%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Chara – Jensen18:13
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Pageau – Beauvillier14:24
xG 1.30–0.48 (73%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Zajac – Eberle – Barzal11:29
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Dal Colle11:32
xG 0.31–0.47 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:08
xG 0.42–0.59 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pelech2:26
xG 0.79–0.02 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield11:42
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:52
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).