Sat, Apr 24, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 17 | 16 | 16 | 00 | 319 |
| FLA | 18 | 014 | 213 | 11 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Steven Lorentz · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:35FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:37CARDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 3:04CARBrett PesceAssists: Jake Gardiner, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 4:48FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 6:20FLAAlexander WennbergSHAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Anthony Duclair · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 0:24FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Chris Driedger, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:10CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:18FLAPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:27FLAFrank Vatrano: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 6:04FLAPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P2 8:31CARJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 14:21CARMorgan Geekie: Holding2 min
- P2 17:36FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CARNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P3 5:18FLAJuho Lammikko: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Necas11:35
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Paquette – Foegele10:52
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Shore – McCormick – Geekie2:34
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Lorentz – Svechnikov11:15
xG 0.16–1.22 (12%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce12:59
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Ryan10:02
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin14:26
xG 0.41–1.57 (21%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Duclair – Bennett10:36
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Barkov – Vatrano – Tippett3:15
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gusev – Barkov – Vatrano8:31
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wennberg – Lammikko3:32
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling15:38
xG 1.18–0.23 (84%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Gudas – Nutivaara6:22
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – Montour3:18
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).