Sat, Apr 24, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 014 | 19 | 113 | 236 |
| PIT | 215 | 113 | 19 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41PITJeff CarterAssists: Jason Zucker, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:50PITJared McCannPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 7:30PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 8:45NJDJack HughesAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 10:58NJDMiles WoodAssists: Ryan Murray, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:59PITSidney CrosbyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:26NJDAndreas Johnsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:23PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P2 3:51PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 14:54PITJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:54NJDNick Merkley: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier11:03
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod12:57
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Merkley – Boqvist – Studenic6:13
xG 0.08–0.47 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Johnsson – Sharangovich – Hughes14:18
xG 0.33–0.98 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Severson17:03
xG 0.72–0.38 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Tennyson – White11:31
xG 0.77–0.70 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Carrick – Butcher18:09
xG 0.40–1.10 (26%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Jankowski – Rodrigues5:48
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – McCann11:40
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Blueger – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese2:21
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel16:46
xG 0.64–0.74 (47%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ceci15:22
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 21–11goals 2–1
- Letang – Dumoulin21:17
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino13:13
xG 0.74–0.90 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).