Sat, Apr 24, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 021 | 020 | 110 | 11 | 252 |
| DET | 13 | 03 | 011 | 00 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:17DETDennis CholowskiAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 3:52DALMark PysykAssists: Jason Robertson, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- OT 0:32DALJamie BennGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:38DETTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:34DETFilip Hronek: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:59DETSam Gagner: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:07DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:47DALJason Dickinson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:18
xG 0.95–0.43 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:27
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov10:25
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hanley8:13
xG 0.69–0.11 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:25
xG 0.92–0.52 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Sekera – Lindell2:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Namestnikov – Svechnikov2:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne9:24
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gagner – Svechnikov – Rasmussen4:03
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Vrana – Zadina9:04
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeKeyser – Stecher2:13
xG 0.06–0.05 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Biega3:09
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Biega – Hronek2:24
xG 0.01–0.15 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).