Sat, Apr 24, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 19 | 011 | 331 |
| STL | 313 | 05 | 212 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37COLCale MakarPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 3:01COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 9:49STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 12:40STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 17:48STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Torey Krug, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 8:10COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 11:19STLMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 18:25STLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:31STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:54STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:59COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:49STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P2 8:01STLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50COLLiam O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P3 9:42COLNazem Kadri: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:11COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:47STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Nichushkin – Jost8:15
xG 0.76–0.04 (95%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon12:58
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- O'Brien – Bellemare – Kaut5:42
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kadri – Compher8:57
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar6:02
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Toews4:11
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard4:18
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Barbashev – Blais2:01
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Blais – Thomas2:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Kyrou9:57
xG 0.21–0.37 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Perron – Barbashev – Thomas4:46
xG 0.02–0.37 (6%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Krug8:02
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko3:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 2–0
- Walman – Dunn12:01
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).