Sat, Apr 24, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 19 | 09 | 232 |
| CGY | 111 | 29 | 214 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:32MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Jake Evans, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:29CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:14CGYMilan LucicAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:31CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 18:03MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Corey Perry, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 4:41CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Derek Ryan, Joakim Nordstrom · Snap, 0.32 xG2–4
- P3 17:31CGYRasmus AnderssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:43MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 7:12CGYDillon Dube: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:31CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:20MTLBen Chiarot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:24CGYElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24MTLAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:51CGYJuuso Välimäki: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Toffoli – Suzuki8:37
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Tatar – Danault – Anderson6:03
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi6:09
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Lehkonen – Evans2:03
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Romanov4:09
xG 0.56–0.05 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Petry – Edmundson11:26
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot13:42
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Tkachuk – Dube7:14
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube3:08
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Robinson – Ryan4:06
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk4:22
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Välimäki2:20
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Stone – Välimäki6:09
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giordano – Stone4:03
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).