Sat, Apr 24, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 014 | 17 | 228 |
| VAN | 17 | 114 | 213 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43VANNate SchmidtUnassisted · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:32OTTColin WhiteAssists: Joshua Brown, Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:46VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 11:52OTTEvgenii DadonovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:45VANTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:06VANJ.T. MillerENAssists: Tyler Motte, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:51VANJayce Hawryluk: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:51OTTErik Brannstrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:55VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:37VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:27OTTMatt Murray: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:36VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:27VANJake Virtanen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:51VANTyler Myers: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 2:29OTTAlex Formenton: Interference2 min
- P3 8:11OTTErik Brannstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:11OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:14VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – White – Stützle6:42
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Tierney – Paul – Formenton3:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Tierney – Paul5:41
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:31
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Mete9:34
xG 0.46–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Chabot2:05
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub2:29
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Virtanen – Highmore5:47
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Miller – MacEwen – Hoglander6:51
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Sutter – Motte – Hawryluk6:38
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser10:28
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes13:19
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Myers – Juolevi9:48
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Edler – Myers2:05
xG 0.00–0.10 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).