Sat, Apr 24, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 38 | 17 | 211 | 626 |
| SJS | 04 | 013 | 313 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19MINRyan SuterAssists: Jordan Greenway · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:00MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 17:43MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 19:10MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 1:19SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Timo Meier, Rudolfs Balcers · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 4:28MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 4:47SJSEvander KaneAssists: Tomas Hertl, Nikolai Knyzhov · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 6:06SJSJoachim BlichfeldUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 19:38MINNick BoninoENAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.51 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:26SJSJoachim Blichfeld: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:08SJSRudolfs Balcers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:42SJSBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gambrell won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:51
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm10:46
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov12:59
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala11:03
xG 0.65–0.99 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon16:43
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:54
xG 0.37–0.70 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Cole – Soucy13:51
xG 0.61–1.02 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hertl – Labanc13:37
xG 1.10–0.29 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Couture – Meier – Balcers13:01
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Donato – Gregor – Blichfeld4:53
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Gregor – Gambrell – Leonard3:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Knyzhov6:03
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Burns – Ferraro14:26
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Pateryn – Knyzhov9:16
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).