Sun, Apr 25, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 114 | 19 | 334 |
| NYR | 312 | 17 | 210 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 6:16BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Colin Miller, Jacob Bryson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 12:02NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Adam Fox, Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 17:10NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 2:05NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 14:47BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 7:06NYRKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Zac Jones · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–5
- P3 10:34BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dustin Tokarski · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 19:05NYRKevin RooneyENAssists: Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:17BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:53NYRPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:11BUFTobias Rieder: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:52BUFAnders Bjork: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:29NYRVitali Kravtsov: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:28NYRRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen10:58
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Rieder – Caggiula5:31
xG 0.30–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson11:52
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:00
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin19:33
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Miller – Bryson11:11
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson12:23
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière8:42
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Kreider – Chytil – Kakko8:52
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Rooney – Howden – Kravtsov6:08
xG 0.04–0.03 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin11:04
xG 0.12–0.52 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren5:15
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Fox – Hajek9:53
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Lindgren – Jones8:56
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).