Mon, Mar 22, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 06 | 16 | 14 | 220 |
| PHI | 012 | 114 | 011 | 00 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:03PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 4:06NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Adam Pelech, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- OT 3:41NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:26PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:17NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 18:11NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom10:37
xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal9:02
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Dal Colle – Barzal2:05
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Dal Colle12:19
xG 0.03–0.41 (6%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock17:02
xG 1.05–0.50 (68%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
- Greene – Leddy14:46
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield13:33
xG 0.34–0.99 (26%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRaffl – Aube-Kubel – Patrick8:32
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny12:27
xG 0.50–0.38 (56%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Lindblom10:37
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee13:03
xG 0.54–0.88 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Myers15:08
xG 0.87–0.27 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov16:10
xG 0.56–0.37 (61%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Braun – Sanheim15:17
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).