Sun, Apr 25, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 25 | 05 | 112 | 00 | 322 |
| TBL | 18 | 116 | 19 | 11 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 17:16CBJMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Mikko Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:29CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Domi · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 6:09TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 0:55CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Max Domi, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 2:41TBLAlex Barré-BouletPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 0:10TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:16CBJJack Roslovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:37CBJMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:03TBLBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:02CBJMikhail Grigorenko: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28CBJMax Domi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Texier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Domi – Robinson13:00
xG 0.79–0.35 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Matteau – MacInnis – Dunne2:58
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Roslovic – Laine2:08
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – MacInnis – Dunne3:04
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Lehtonen11:52
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Kukan – Bayreuther13:14
xG 0.45–0.95 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Jones17:14
xG 0.27–0.90 (23%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Cirelli10:24
xG 0.99–0.30 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Palat – Point – Barré-Boulet12:14
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton8:22
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde12:30
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev4:51
xG 0.41–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hedman3:09
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak12:38
xG 0.46–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).