Mon, Apr 26, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 6, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 413 | 07 | 630 |
| WPG | 012 | 115 | 010 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:22EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Adam Larsson, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:31EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 3:35EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Dominik Kahun, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 11:40EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 13:18EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.11 xG5–0
- P2 15:06WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Paul Stastny, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
- P2 16:30EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG6–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:07EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:03WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:44EDMJosh Archibald: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMcDavid – Puljujarvi – Kahun11:23
xG 1.00–0.70 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 4–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:31
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Archibald – Shore – McLeod11:08
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas9:05
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Larsson16:36
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Barrie – Nurse17:43
xG 1.21–1.28 (49%)attempts 19–24goals 4–0
- Bear – Jones17:14
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Copp – Appleton16:16
xG 1.14–0.45 (72%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins8:36
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Stastny – Perreault – Vesalainen10:45
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Dubois11:47
xG 0.28–0.87 (24%)attempts 12–12goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk13:15
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey8:30
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Benn – DeMelo10:46
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).