Thu, Apr 29, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 25 | 17 | 12 | 521 |
| MIN | 06 | 112 | 39 | 03 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14STLSammy BlaisAssists: Torey Krug, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:34STLTyler BozakSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 10:55STLMarco ScandellaAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 17:01MINJoel Eriksson EkUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 2:21MINKevin FialaAssists: Victor Rask · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 6:16STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: David Perron, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 15:21MINVictor RaskAssists: Kevin Fiala, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:08MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 3:43STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:42MINRyan Hartman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:32STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:32MINJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:29MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:29STLRobert Bortuzzo: Instigator2 min
- P2 6:29STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:29STLRobert Bortuzzo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:08MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Sanford – Barbashev9:04
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn13:57
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Kyrou – Thomas11:13
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Bozak – Schwartz – Blais11:08
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko14:31
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Faulk – Mikkola4:45
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola4:11
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:42
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov5:14
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala7:16
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov9:00
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:51
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba20:31
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Soucy14:00
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).