Mon, May 10, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 14 | 18 | 221 |
| VGK | 114 | 015 | 08 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Nicolas Hague, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:04COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 11:33COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Alex Newhook, Conor Timmins · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:49COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:24COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:38COLRyan Graves: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:27VGKAlex Tuch: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:10VGKChandler Stephenson: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:07COLJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Landeskog
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Newhook7:48
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:59
xG 0.31–0.32 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Kadri – Landeskog – Nichushkin2:39
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:29
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Nemeth – MacDonald8:08
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Graves – Timmins12:18
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:32
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Janmark15:02
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Carrier – Tuch – Kolesar3:24
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Roy2:22
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore6:09
xG 0.30–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Theodore – Hague2:16
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague6:46
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).