Sun, Mar 14, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 215 | 010 | 09 | 00 | 2 | 334 |
| NJD | 16 | 112 | 010 | 03 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18NYIKieffer BellowsAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 5:12NJDJanne KuokkanenPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 19:58NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 16:04NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: P.K. Subban, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Nikita Gusev scored
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 4. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 5. NJD Pavel Zacha stopped
- 6. NYI Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 7. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 8. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:55NYIAndy Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:25NJDJanne Kuokkanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:48NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:27NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44NJDDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:20NYIKieffer Bellows: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:20NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:01NJDNathan Bastian: Interference2 min
- OT 2:36NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier9:49
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Bellows12:36
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:51
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Komarov – Czarnik – Wahlstrom6:45
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield11:24
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:44
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Pelech3:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Wood – Zacha9:31
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gusev – Bastian – Maltsev4:30
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Hughes12:57
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Zajac – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich9:46
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Smith3:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Murray9:30
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Subban – Kulikov15:39
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).