Tue, Apr 27, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 016 | 112 | 09 | 137 |
| NYR | 06 | 120 | 215 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:22NYRBrendan SmithUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 19:56BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 9:49NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 13:49NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 19:27NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:12BUFJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P3 6:57NYRKevin Rooney: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:57NYRKevin Rooney: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:57BUFDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:08BUFTage Thompson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:24BUFDrake Caggiula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Rieder – Caggiula9:09
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bjork – Cozens – Ruotsalainen7:10
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson13:01
xG 0.66–0.95 (41%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt11:54
xG 0.64–0.94 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Samuelsson14:15
xG 0.91–0.41 (69%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Borgen – Bryson12:33
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin18:26
xG 0.86–1.41 (38%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Chytil – Kakko9:51
xG 0.92–0.29 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin11:23
xG 0.88–0.64 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière11:07
xG 0.34–0.59 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Rooney – Howden – Kravtsov6:51
xG 0.03–0.56 (5%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren6:46
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Miller16:36
xG 0.84–0.87 (49%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Fox – Hajek12:36
xG 1.06–1.23 (46%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).