Tue, Apr 27, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 7, Nashville Predators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 121 | 221 | 414 | 756 |
| NSH | 18 | 313 | 09 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07NSHRyan EllisAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:28FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:56FLAAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 6:50NSHLuke KuninAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 12:40NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Roman Josi, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 17:32FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Owen Tippett, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 19:37NSHRyan EllisAssists: Matt Duchene, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 4:57FLAOwen TippettAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–4
- P3 7:15FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Aleksi Heponiemi · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 13:48FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–4
- P3 18:23FLAJonathan HuberdeauENUnassisted · Other, 0.66 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:48NSHBen Harpur: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:11FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:32NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:15NSHMikael Granlund: Interference2 min
- P2 9:53FLAJuho Lammikko: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:06NSHMatt Duchene: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:57NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Bennett – Tippett9:46
xG 1.73–0.24 (88%)attempts 25–8goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Vatrano – Heponiemi9:36
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Denisenko9:09
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2
- Gusev – Lammikko – Lomberg6:16
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling16:37
xG 1.94–0.28 (87%)attempts 27–7goals 2–1
- Yandle – Nutivaara13:00
xG 1.03–0.21 (83%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Montour – Nutivaara2:56
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Johansen – Arvidsson – Tolvanen3:12
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Haula – Cousins7:28
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot12:25
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin9:26
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 5–20goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Harpur7:56
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Benning – Harpur3:55
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:37
xG 0.66–0.82 (45%)attempts 10–18goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).