Tue, Apr 27, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 215 | 17 | 28 | 530 |
| DAL | 07 | 113 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 8:09CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Brett Pesce, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 1:13CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.51 xG3–0
- P2 7:45DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 5:18CARMax McCormickAssists: Morgan Geekie, Steven Lorentz · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 12:14CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jordan Staal, Warren Foegele · Snap, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:28DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:15CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:20DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P1 19:23DALRadek Faksa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:01CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:54CARCedric Paquette: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Foegele9:27
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- McCormick – Lorentz – Geekie7:11
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:55
xG 0.58–0.76 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Paquette – Necas9:35
xG 0.02–0.27 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin16:46
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Pesce – Bean14:54
xG 0.86–0.68 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Hakanpää10:43
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:36
xG 0.80–0.46 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:17
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov9:58
xG 0.18–0.52 (25%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Hanley9:53
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Hanley2:03
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen13:10
xG 0.64–0.85 (43%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).