Wed, Apr 28, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 013 | 17 | 312 | 432 |
| MIN | 110 | 216 | 03 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:47MINJonas BrodinAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 0:32MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jordan Greenway · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 10:27STLMike HoffmanPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:29MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 3:49STLMike HoffmanPPAssists: David Perron, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 7:41STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 19:37STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:19MINKevin Fiala: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:15STLMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:20MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Kyrou – Thomas4:22
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Sanford – Blais7:00
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bozak – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:58
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Sanford – Barbashev – Blais2:20
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Scandella2:26
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Faulk – Mikkola4:35
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug2:01
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov15:00
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:53
xG 0.76–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala10:21
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm10:04
xG 0.09–0.57 (13%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon21:32
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Cole – Soucy12:48
xG 0.72–0.26 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba20:05
xG 0.94–0.96 (50%)attempts 20–24goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).