Wed, Apr 28, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 113 | 012 | 237 |
| VGK | 111 | 26 | 29 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:43COLDevon ToewsAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 9:36VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 14:39VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 17:06COLRyan GravesAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 0:55VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:41VGKJonathan MarchessaultENUnassisted · Snap, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:54COLLiam O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:44COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06VGKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
- P1 17:39COLNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:09VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:22COLSamuel Girard: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 18:25VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:34VGKChandler Stephenson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Landeskog
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Compher – Sherwood5:46
xG 0.91–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon10:40
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Kadri – Nichushkin – Jost8:42
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Bellemare – Kaut3:09
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Toews3:02
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Graves – Makar6:15
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Graves – Girard2:05
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Janmark – Tuch – Sikura6:16
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:05
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:31
xG 0.53–0.72 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Carrier – Tuch – Kolesar2:53
xG 0.02–0.34 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore11:27
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:14
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud8:07
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).