Thu, Apr 29, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 011 | 19 | 231 |
| BOS | 213 | 015 | 312 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:09BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Arttu Ruotsalainen, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 19:59BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 1:43BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 7:58BOSCharlie CoyleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 16:43BOSTaylor HallAssists: David Krejci, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:26BOSBrad MarchandENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:05BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36BOSCurtis Lazar: Interference2 min
- P2 14:50BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:30BOSDavid Krejci: Interference2 min
- P3 13:30BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P3 17:47BOSConnor Clifton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBjork – Caggiula – Cozens11:56
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson11:11
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Rieder – Thompson6:14
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Asplund – Mittelstadt – Ruotsalainen13:29
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Bryson10:58
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:33
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson16:30
xG 0.27–1.01 (21%)attempts 10–23goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Smith – Hall12:13
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Coyle – Kuraly – Ritchie2:47
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Wagner – Lazar – Ritchie5:53
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:25
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk11:28
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 20–4goals 0–1
- Reilly – Clifton9:24
xG 0.39–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lauzon – McAvoy9:16
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).