Thu, Apr 29, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 211 | 19 | 11 | 535 |
| WSH | 110 | 217 | 18 | 02 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Justin Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:27PITKasperi KapanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:32PITFrederick GaudreauAssists: Jason Zucker, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:02WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 15:07WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Justin Schultz, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 18:11PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Colton Sceviour · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:55PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Jared McCann, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:45WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–4
- OT 2:11PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: John Marino, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:15PITEvan Rodrigues: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:56WSHJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 1:48WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 9:22PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:45PITBryan Rust: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:35WSHMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel16:24
xG 0.87–0.77 (53%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Carter – Kapanen – McCann11:44
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Zucker – Blueger – Aston-Reese10:10
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:32
xG 0.66–0.47 (59%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Letang – Matheson2:01
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino11:01
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Raffl – Sheary11:31
xG 0.59–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:31
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Sprong9:12
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–3
- Oshie – Backstrom – Mantha13:30
xG 0.38–0.56 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov17:07
xG 0.79–0.61 (57%)attempts 20–18goals 2–1
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk16:10
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen11:07
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 11–15goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).