Thu, Apr 29, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 115 | 18 | 330 |
| EDM | 18 | 09 | 014 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 13:28EDMJames NealAssists: Kris Russell, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:07CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Matthew Tkachuk · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 12:08CGYDillon DubeAssists: Milan Lucic, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:40CGYBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P2 2:43EDMTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:20CGYDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:41EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16CGYDillon Dube: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:16CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Robinson – Ryan6:19
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:01
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Dube10:24
xG 0.47–0.69 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Monahan – Mangiapane12:14
xG 0.33–0.76 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNesterov – Andersson16:55
xG 0.99–0.57 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Stone – Välimäki9:49
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Giordano – Tanev18:29
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Archibald – McLeod7:07
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto7:05
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Shore – Haas5:58
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McDavid – Puljujarvi – Kahun7:09
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Larsson15:37
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear2:13
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse18:18
xG 0.85–0.92 (48%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).