Wed, May 12, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 0, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 013 | 014 | 04 | 031 |
| STL | 211 | 212 | 04 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54STLIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: David Perron, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:40STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 9:56STLTorey KrugAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 13:10STLDavid PerronAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:57STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:37STLVille Husso: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:28STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28MINKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:09STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sanford won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:47
xG 1.12–0.10 (92%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Bjugstad – Sturm8:13
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:27
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Rask – Fiala8:37
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:53
xG 1.29–0.92 (58%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon14:16
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Soucy14:47
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou10:15
xG 1.05–1.09 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Kostin – Thomas10:20
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Clifford – MacEachern – Sanford9:56
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev10:27
xG 0.89–1.16 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Mikkola12:49
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug16:01
xG 0.89–0.83 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko16:42
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).