Thu, Apr 29, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 02 | 19 | 05 | 116 |
| TOR | 17 | 211 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:51TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 2:57TORPierre EngvallAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 15:36VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 19:05TORMitch MarnerAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:54TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54VANAlexander Edler: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:33TORAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:47TORTimothy Liljegren: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Hoglander6:33
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Sutter – Virtanen – Highmore2:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – Highmore – MacEwen3:45
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Lind4:59
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes4:26
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Hughes2:24
xG 0.06–0.10 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Schmidt2:40
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marner – Matthews14:15
xG 1.15–0.39 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Spezza – Engvall – Brooks7:32
xG 0.61–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Mikheyev6:50
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander10:36
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Sandin18:40
xG 1.09–0.06 (95%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Dermott – Liljegren12:38
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Holl – Hutton17:06
xG 0.80–0.87 (48%)attempts 14–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).