Fri, Apr 30, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 0, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 08 | 07 | 021 |
| COL | 213 | 012 | 111 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:13COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 18:21COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.61 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:27COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P1 10:25SJSAlexander Barabanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:20SJSAlexander True: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:21SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:22COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:10SJSNoah Gregor: Holding2 min
- P3 1:41COLPatrik Nemeth: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:38COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:38COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:38SJSKevin Labanc: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Balcers – Gregor4:55
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Donato – Chekhovich2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Donato – Labanc5:52
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Labanc – Meier – True3:02
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Jaros7:06
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Karlsson2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:55
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Compher – Bellemare – Sherwood4:49
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kadri – Donskoi6:58
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Nichushkin – Jost9:54
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar4:41
xG 0.31–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Timmins – Makar2:09
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Toews4:25
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).