Fri, Apr 30, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 2, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 06 | 210 | 225 |
| ANA | 110 | 019 | 05 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37ANAHaydn FleuryAssists: Trevor Zegras · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 14:56LAKLias AnderssonAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 19:04LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Mikey Anderson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:51LAKMatt Roy: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:51ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:51LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:01LAKGabriel Vilardi: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:32LAKAndreas Athanasiou: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:28ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44LAKMikey Anderson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:30
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Moore – Vilardi – Andersson7:40
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Wagner – Anderson-Dolan6:54
xG 0.09–0.26 (25%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Kempe – Byfield11:50
xG 0.36–1.10 (24%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson10:22
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Maatta – Walker10:19
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Roy – Anderson8:52
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Volkov – Lundeström11:47
xG 1.06–0.40 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Terry – Comtois – Zegras10:20
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Carrick – Steel – Jones10:00
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Heinen10:13
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Larsson15:01
xG 1.27–0.26 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit12:27
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Fleury – Drysdale14:58
xG 0.25–0.91 (21%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).