Sat, May 1, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 14 | 07 | 18 | 219 |
| BOS | 217 | 112 | 314 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21BOSCraig SmithAssists: David Krejci, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:35BUFRiley SheahanSHAssists: Jacob Bryson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:38BOSSean KuralyAssists: Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 5:36BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Brad Marchand · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 3:18BOSNick RitchieAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Kevan Miller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 5:31BOSCraig SmithAssists: Mike Reilly, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 7:02BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–5
- P3 14:05BOSCraig SmithPPAssists: David Krejci, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:28BUFRiley Sheahan: Holding2 min
- P1 12:27BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:34BOSSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:09BUFDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:45BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:45BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:39BUFWill Borgen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAsplund – Mittelstadt – Ruotsalainen8:18
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Rieder – Thompson4:20
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Bjork – Caggiula3:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson6:44
xG 0.05–0.57 (8%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Dahlin18:58
xG 0.78–0.78 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson9:12
xG 0.04–0.52 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
- Ristolainen – Bryson2:08
xG 0.09–0.65 (13%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLazar – DeBrusk – Kuhlman11:24
xG 1.08–0.23 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Smith – Hall8:38
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:03
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Coyle – Kuraly – Ritchie12:24
xG 0.63–0.71 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Clifton15:01
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Lauzon – McAvoy15:02
xG 0.80–0.50 (62%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Miller – Grzelcyk14:17
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).