Sat, May 1, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 28 | 011 | 326 |
| WSH | 08 | 011 | 05 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56PITBryan RustGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 0:26PITBryan RustUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 10:43PITJeff CarterAssists: Kris Letang · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P3 6:07WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:20PITJason Zucker: Holding2 min
- P3 10:20PITTeddy Blueger: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:20WSHBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:07WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Gaudreau – Lafferty8:51
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel15:37
xG 0.97–0.45 (69%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Carter – Kapanen – McCann13:25
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Zucker – Blueger – Aston-Reese11:55
xG 0.08–0.78 (10%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:33
xG 0.95–0.53 (64%)attempts 15–18goals 3–0
- Matheson – Ceci9:27
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Raffl13:34
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Backstrom – Mantha – Sheary12:00
xG 0.85–0.71 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Sprong11:38
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:24
xG 0.11–0.56 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – van Riemsdyk11:49
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Orlov – van Riemsdyk2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chara – van Riemsdyk3:23
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).