Sat, May 1, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Detroit Red Wings 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 06 | 014 | 02 | 3 | 033 |
| DET | 04 | 05 | 04 | 02 | 4 | 115 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. TBL Ross Colton scored
- 2. DET Jakub Vrana scored
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. DET Filip Zadina scored
- 5. TBL Alex Barré-Boulet stopped
- 6. DET Adam Erne stopped
- 7. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 8. DET Joseph Veleno stopped
- 9. TBL Mikhail Sergachev stopped
- 10. DET Evgeny Svechnikov stopped
- 11. TBL Blake Coleman stopped
- 12. DET Vladislav Namestnikov stopped
- 13. TBL Tyler Johnson scored
- 14. DET Valtteri Filppula scored
- 15. TBL Yanni Gourde stopped
- 16. DET Sam Gagner scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:24DETAlex Biega: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:28TBLRyan McDonagh: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:05TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 17:42DETVladislav Namestnikov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:42TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:42DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:42DETJoseph Veleno: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:56DETSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:23TBLBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Barré-Boulet11:28
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli9:48
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton8:07
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde9:27
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak13:20
xG 1.00–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sergachev6:46
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Savard11:09
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Helm – Panik – Glendening6:47
xG 0.15–0.35 (29%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Vrana – Rasmussen7:54
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Zadina7:46
xG 0.11–0.48 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Svechnikov – Veleno5:25
xG 0.05–0.56 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom15:45
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Hronek13:02
xG 0.32–0.98 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Biega12:02
xG 0.00–1.12 (0%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).