Sat, May 1, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 117 | 213 | 212 | 542 |
| CHI | 014 | 29 | 212 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Sam Bennett, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:30FLANikita GusevAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Radko Gudas · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 15:19CHIConnor MurphyPPAssists: Brett Connolly, Adam Gaudette · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:11CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Adam Gaudette, Ian Mitchell · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 19:53FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Gustav Forsling, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 0:28FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Grigori Denisenko · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 0:59FLAOwen TippettGWGAssists: Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.27 xG5–2
- P3 12:28CHIKirby DachPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 19:42CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:34FLAAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:47CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:20FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42FLAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52FLARyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Bennett – Tippett10:35
xG 1.16–0.38 (76%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Gusev – Acciari – Lomberg9:17
xG 1.12–0.66 (63%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Vatrano – Heponiemi9:19
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Denisenko11:07
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling15:15
xG 1.83–0.50 (79%)attempts 33–10goals 2–0
- Montour – Nutivaara16:56
xG 1.25–0.46 (73%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Gudas12:38
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Kampf – Hardman5:43
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Strome – Gaudette4:57
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Hagel – Dach2:25
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Kane – Kubalik – Strome2:27
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stillman – Mitchell14:33
xG 1.06–1.12 (48%)attempts 16–26goals 1–1
- Keith – Kalynuk14:33
xG 0.77–1.32 (37%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
- Murphy – Zadorov16:08
xG 0.04–0.93 (5%)attempts 3–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).