Thu, May 13, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 3, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 311 | 06 | 03 | 320 |
| STL | 07 | 411 | 39 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23MINNico SturmAssists: Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 4:06MINRyan SuterAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 16:04MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Ian Cole, Jordan Greenway · Deflected, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 5:16STLZachary SanfordAssists: Kyle Clifford, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 8:29STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 11:33STLDavid PerronAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 14:03STLBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: David Perron, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 5:50STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 6:33STLJordan KyrouAssists: Klim Kostin, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–6
- P3 15:29STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Steven Santini · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:30MINKyle Rau: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:43STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:20MINIan Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:00MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:42MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18STLTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sanford won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Bjugstad – Sturm8:38
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Parise – Johansson – Rask10:40
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:10
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 2–2
- Rau – Johnson – Hartman8:10
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba14:18
xG 0.93–0.27 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Hunt – Mermis15:13
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–3
- Cole – Soucy18:15
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Sanford – Blais10:59
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Barbashev7:52
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Schenn – Thomas7:41
xG 0.04–0.14 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bozak – Kyrou – Kostin7:24
xG 0.28–1.00 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Krug10:07
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Scandella – Santini6:03
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Santini – Mikkola10:13
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).