Sat, May 1, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 012 | 04 | 127 |
| TOR | 16 | 110 | 314 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28VANTanner PearsonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 15:24TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:50TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 4:55TORAdam BrooksAssists: Justin Holl, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 11:39TORAlex GalchenyukAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 18:00TORJoe ThorntonENAssists: Travis Dermott, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 18:08TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 13:23VANNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Hawryluk – Highmore6:55
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Boyd – Vesey – MacEwen8:24
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Lind9:48
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander11:46
xG 0.40–0.75 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Chatfield13:39
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Myers – Schmidt15:04
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Myers – Hughes2:25
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Marner – Matthews11:55
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander11:28
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Mikheyev10:41
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Brooks9:48
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly14:59
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Dermott – Sandin6:48
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Brodie – Sandin4:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).