Sat, May 1, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 14 | 211 | 325 |
| COL | 015 | 221 | 28 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25SJSAlexander BarabanovPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 13:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Conor Timmins, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:06COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 9:05COLPatrik NemethAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 9:55SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 15:34COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Conor Timmins · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 17:47SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brent Burns, Alexander Barabanov · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:44SJSRudolfs Balcers: Interference2 min
- P2 3:46COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:36SJSTimo Meier: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:26COLDan Renouf: Holding2 min
- P2 12:43SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P3 6:23COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:15SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:55COLKiefer Sherwood: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Labanc – Meier – True9:09
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Hertl – Barabanov11:17
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Couture – Balcers – Gregor10:15
xG 0.14–0.83 (14%)attempts 3–16goals 0–2
- Marleau – Donato – Leonard7:32
xG 0.19–1.04 (15%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Knyzhov12:57
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Knyzhov2:05
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Jaros11:23
xG 0.11–0.71 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:58
xG 1.63–0.25 (87%)attempts 24–5goals 2–0
- Burakovsky – Nichushkin – Jost7:08
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kadri – Donskoi9:59
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Bellemare – Sherwood5:52
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:46
xG 0.98–0.14 (88%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Renouf4:50
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Timmins9:24
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).