Mon, May 3, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 6, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 215 | 111 | 314 | 640 |
| NYR | 110 | 211 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:12WSHNic DowdAssists: Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:44WSHConor ShearyAssists: Michael Raffl, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 18:00NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 2:30NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 4:35NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 18:30WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 4:37WSHDaniel SprongGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 11:41WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Michael Raffl, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 18:34WSHTom WilsonENAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.66 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:04WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:49NYRBrendan Smith: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:12WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07WSHDaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:40WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40NYRArtemi Panarin: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40WSHBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40NYRPavel Buchnevich: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:26NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:33NYRZac Jones: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Rooney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway12:24
xG 0.84–0.44 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Eller – Raffl – Sheary6:06
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Mantha – Sprong9:26
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Eller – Wilson – Sheary4:38
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov15:19
xG 1.15–0.39 (75%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk14:46
xG 1.11–0.45 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Chara – Jensen7:16
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Kakko – Lafrenière4:02
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rooney – Gauthier – Barron7:31
xG 0.21–0.44 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin5:21
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Chytil – Kravtsov6:51
xG 0.09–0.42 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReunanen – Jones3:02
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Fox – Miller11:33
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Miller – Jones2:43
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).