Mon, May 3, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 011 | 215 | 237 |
| PHI | 320 | 117 | 38 | 745 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58PHIKevin HayesAssists: Joel Farabee, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 14:08PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 15:12PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 7:50PHIWade AllisonAssists: Scott Laughton, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 2:30PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 8:24PITJason ZuckerPPAssists: John Marino, Kasperi Kapanen · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 11:37PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.25 xG2–5
- P3 17:39PHIClaude GirouxENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–6
- P3 18:55PHIRobert HaggAssists: Joel Farabee, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:56PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:18PITKasperi Kapanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14PHIPhilippe Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:48PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03PHIRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:28PHIJoel Farabee: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 14:25PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Blueger – Aston-Reese10:10
xG 1.02–0.13 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Gaudreau – McCann8:22
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen7:47
xG 0.36–0.88 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel11:27
xG 0.27–1.32 (17%)attempts 5–20goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Friedman3:07
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Marino3:36
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Friedman8:23
xG 0.36–0.83 (30%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny12:26
xG 1.33–0.06 (95%)attempts 22–1goals 1–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Farabee7:46
xG 1.20–0.57 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Aube-Kubel – Patrick10:13
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lindblom – Allison11:07
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov14:04
xG 1.14–0.18 (86%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Sanheim – Myers12:09
xG 1.16–0.58 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg13:29
xG 0.61–1.21 (33%)attempts 11–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).