Mon, May 3, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 314 | 09 | 15 | 438 |
| CBJ | 011 | 010 | 311 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:01NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 11:29NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–0
- P2 19:16NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Ellis, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 1:54CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Jack Roslovic, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 7:26CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 15:07CBJEmil BemstromPPAssists: Seth Jones, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:24NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:10CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:53NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P1 18:23NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:47CBJAlexandre Texier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:35CBJMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:39NSHBrad Richardson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 16:24CBJDean Kukan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dalpe won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Trenin – Jeannot9:56
xG 0.81–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen9:52
xG 0.64–0.29 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin10:06
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Duchene – Haula – Cousins8:39
xG 0.20–1.25 (14%)attempts 4–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier14:11
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier2:06
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:41
xG 0.92–0.97 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGrigorenko – Roslovic – Bemstrom12:05
xG 1.29–0.32 (80%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Robinson7:20
xG 0.24–0.11 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Atkinson – Laine2:24
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Domi4:54
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Jones14:38
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Lehtonen16:14
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Kukan – Bayreuther13:07
xG 0.38–0.96 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).