Mon, May 3, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 03 | 18 | 09 | 120 |
| STL | 08 | 110 | 214 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:52STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:17ANARyan GetzlafUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 2:13STLRobert BortuzzoGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:51STLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: David Perron, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:52ANATrevor Zegras: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:46ANAJacob Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:02STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:25STLZachary Sanford: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Comtois – Zegras11:59
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Rakell – Heinen – Lundeström3:15
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Carrick – Jones8:42
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Rakell – Volkov – Lundeström8:20
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Benoit2:31
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura2:33
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Larsson12:51
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Kyrou – Thomas11:12
xG 0.47–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn12:48
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Sanford – Barbashev – Blais8:30
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Bozak – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:51
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Walman9:04
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Parayko – Walman3:23
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola13:16
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).