Mon, May 3, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 017 | 16 | 129 |
| OTT | 16 | 04 | 18 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31OTTConnor BrownSHAssists: Nick Paul · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 9:46WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 18:47OTTNikita ZaitsevGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Connor Brown · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:37OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:38OTTNikita Zaitsev: Charging2 min
- P1 14:30WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:18OTTJoshua Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:11OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:55WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:17OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:02OTTJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:02WPGMathieu Perreault: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:36
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Vesalainen5:29
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Perreault – Dubois7:19
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton6:25
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley9:23
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk5:55
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey4:06
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Tierney – Brown5:18
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Paul – Formenton – Pinto4:11
xG 0.02–0.05 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:32
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Dadonov – White – Stützle7:38
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Brannstrom3:46
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Mete – Zaitsev5:57
xG 0.18–0.09 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Zub5:48
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).