Mon, May 3, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 02 | 315 | 11 | 531 |
| SJS | 15 | 213 | 19 | 00 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20SJSEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 5:38COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 1:57SJSTomas HertlUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:47SJSEvander KaneAssists: Tomas Hertl, Alexander Barabanov · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 1:18COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 3:32SJSTimo MeierAssists: Brent Burns, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 8:59COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 16:21COLNazem KadriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 0:41COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:05SJSTimo Meier: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:42SJSTomas Hertl: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:05COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:03SJSDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:50
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 27–12goals 2–2
- Compher – Bellemare – Sherwood4:56
xG 0.10–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Nichushkin – Jost8:42
xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
- Soderberg – Kadri – Donskoi6:29
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar19:40
xG 1.04–0.56 (65%)attempts 33–13goals 2–2
- Nemeth – Graves3:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Timmins2:30
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Donato – Leonard4:41
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Hertl – Barabanov11:58
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- Labanc – Gregor – Gambrell10:01
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Balcers13:26
xG 0.27–0.80 (25%)attempts 9–21goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Burns – Karlsson2:12
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Knyzhov14:23
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Jaros9:04
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).