Tue, May 4, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 212 | 48 | 731 |
| PHI | 07 | 213 | 113 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Jared McCann, Frederick Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 3:10PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 5:44PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 8:21PHIJustin BraunAssists: Wade Allison, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 18:40PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Sanheim, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 7:49PITJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 10:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 12:33PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 15:53PITMark FriedmanENAssists: Teddy Blueger, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–3
- P3 16:57PITJohn MarinoPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.03 xG7–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:58PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:32PITMark Friedman: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:32PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:32PHIJakub Voracek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:03PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:56PITJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:53PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:33
xG 0.62–0.50 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Carter – Gaudreau – McCann8:58
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen11:36
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Carter – Crosby – Guentzel2:24
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Letang – Dumoulin17:03
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Friedman2:24
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Marino2:49
xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Hayes – Farabee10:34
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Aube-Kubel – Patrick9:46
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:59
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 2–3
- Laughton – Lindblom – Allison7:40
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers16:23
xG 0.86–0.59 (59%)attempts 26–14goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:20
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Braun – Provorov13:37
xG 0.57–0.74 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).